La Ronda is just around the corner

Friday, April 7, 2017

Expats thoughts about the election and political stability in Ecuador. April 2017.

from ExpatExchange Ecuador forum
Question: Anybody living in Ecuador currently have thoughts about the election? About political stability in Ecuador in general? 

Opinion one: The election and the runoff election are over and depending on which side of the political fence you are on, your party either narrowly achieved victory or was robbed by election fraud. Sound familiar ?
Yes, the right wing opposition still has people in the streets in certain cities, protesting the vote count, as I write and governing socialist party has some of their people celebrating. But by and large, is spite of what certain news outlets would like to make it, life goes on and everyone is pretty much back to their daily routines. 
In spite of the hype and hypocrisies, folks here are pretty pragmatic. Yes, we're going through a rough patch economically, but nothing compared to the poor folks in Venezuela, Brazil, or Bolivia. No matter who won, the world wasn't going to come to an end. 
I guess most people not living here or some newcomers may be concerned how the election and its aftermath will affect them. I really don't see where it will have any appreciable influence. 
My wife and her family are very involved in politics - and were, like the country, pretty evenly divided between Moreno and Lasso - which made for some very lively family get togethers !
Personally, I felt better about voting down here, than I did in last fall's U.S. elections.

Opinion two: For those worried about Lenin Moreno continuing along the Correa Calle, I think people will be in for a surprise. He's a lot less divisive, more willing to listen, and I think, poco a poco you will see some of the ladrones and party hack being replaced as he quietly implements his own agenda - not business as usual. I also think relations with the U.S. will improve - provided the Trump government is open to it. ( That of course is a big IF ).

Opinion three: no decision yet.. because there is fraud asserted by lasso... things are calm but the people are not happy that at 95% of the vote lasso was ahead.. and suddenly the website of the CNE election website when down for 20 mins.. and when it came back up.. the ip address was outside of ecuador and was not the same ip that was 20 mins before... and suddenly moreno was ahead.. of course there is the video where the CNE employ was shown taking a piece of scotch tape and lifting handwritten votes off the paper vote and then writing him moreno... and so the CNE has not sent a memo formally giving anyone the nod.. but moreno of course says he won... but it is all disputed..


Wednesday, April 5, 2017

The post- election drama continues in Ecuador. April 2017. Quito, Ecuador.

Election day, second round, was on Sunday, April 2.
Two candidates, one who represents current regime, Lenín Voltaire Moreno, has 51.16% of votes counted (99.73%) and another, Guillermo Lasso, who promises "change" has 48.84%.
Today is April, 5th and president-elect still not formally announced, although Lenín Moreno declared to Teleamazonas journalist: ' I am the elected President of the Ecuadorians. Do not treat me as a candidate in your media" 
source: http://www.elcomercio.com/periodista-teleamazonas-presidente-elecciones 
Lenín Moreno mantuvo un encuentro con la prensa, la tarde de este 4 de abril del 2017. Allí dijo que es el presidente electo de los ecuatorianos. Foto: Julio Estrella/ EL COMERCIO
However, many in Ecuador disagree. 
Liders of Change and Progress movement and Creating Opportunities(CREO) party suspect election fraud and demand recount.
http://www.elcomercio.com_liderespopulares_organizaciones_politicas-paronacional-fraude-eleccion

Supporters of CREO in Quito are protesting on a streets for fourth day.
http://www.elcomercio.com/simpatizantes-creo-manifestacion-shyris-eloyalfa
Los simpatizantes del movimiento Creo bloquearon el paso de una unidad de la Ecovía, en las avenidas Eloy Alfaro y Shyris, en el norte de Quito. Foto: Patricio Terán/ EL COMERCIO

A massive march in support of Guillermo Lasso and recount of votes in Guayaquil.
http://www.elcomercio.com/marcha-respaldo-guillermo_lasso-reconteovotos-guayaquil 
La Policía impidió inicialmente que se cierre toda la circulación vehicular y se permitió el paso de carros por uno de los cuatro carriles de cada puente. Pero cada vez aumentaban más los manifestantes. Foto: Mario Faustos / EL COMERCIO
In Cuenca
https://www.elcomercio.com/marcha-respaldo-guillermolasso-cuenca-elecciones
Partidarios de Guillermo Lasso marcharon por el centro de Cuenca la noche de este 4 de abril del 2017. Foto: Xavier Caivinagua para EL COMERCIO
in Ambato  
https://www.elcomercio.com/planton-ambato-reconteodevotos-guillermolasso-elecciones2017
Simpatizantes de la alianza Creo - SUMA se reunieron en la explanada del parque Cevallos, ubicada en el centro de Ambato, desde las 17:00 de este 4 de abril. Foto: Fabián Maisanche / EL COMERCIO
Guillermo Lasso presents today, April 5th, the legal bases of 'fraud' and petition for recount.
http://www.elcomercio.com/guillermo_lasso-presenta-fundamentos-resultados-elecciones

Also we have an exchange between Julian Assange, who resides in Ecuadorian Embassy in London since 2012 and Guillermo Lasso.
They kindly asked each other to leave the premises....

to be continued as events unfold....

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

2017 Presidential Election Polls in Ecuador - anecdotal evidence. March 2017.

During month of March I carried out my own poll, asking random people in Quito who is their Presidential candidate, for whom they'll vote in coming elections. I would never ask this question in US, but here in Ecuador, in my opinion, people are more easy going, they didn't mind my question.
Here are my results. I grouped them as I could.
Taxi drivers: 11 of them, one said that he'll vote for Lenin, one was undecided, nine - for Lasso.
Small business owners: 6 shopkeepers polled, one will vote for Lenin, five for Lasso
Concierges: 2 of them, one for Lenin, one for Lasso.
My neighbors:  8 of them, one will null his vote, two for Lenin and five for Lasso.

My anecdotal statistics: 
Total participants: 27  (100%)
undecided:           1  appr  3.5%
null vote:              1  appr  3.5%
Lenin:                   5 appr  19%
Lasso:                  20 appr 74%

Election day, second round, is on Sunday, April 2.

source: https://en.wikipedia/Lenin_Moreno
Lenín Boltaire Moreno Garcés (born 19 March 1953) is an Ecuadorian politician who served as Vice President of the republic from 2007 to 2013, serving under President Rafael Correa. His election as Vice President was notable because as a paraplegic. On 1 October 2016, he was nominated as the candidate for Correa's Alianza País in the 2017 presidential election.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillermo_Lasso
Guillermo Alberto Santiago Lasso Mendoza (born 16 November 1955) is an Ecuadorian businessman and politician, presidential candidate for the Ecuadorian general election, 2013 for the party Creating Opportunities. 
In early 2017, Lasso launched his second presidential campaign to succeed incumbent President Correa for Creating Opportunities in the 2017 presidential elections, as Correa had already served his two-term constitutionally defined limit.